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The alarming projections for New York’s future
Recent research from Cornell University has painted a bleak picture for New York’s population, predicting a potential decline of up to 2 million residents over the next 25 years. This projection, if realized, would shrink the state’s population from 19.7 million to below 17 million.
The driving force behind this decline? A combination of low birth rates, high death rates, and insufficient domestic migration to offset these losses. The researchers emphasize that domestic migration is the primary factor influencing population changes in New York.
Consequences of a shrinking population
The implications of such a significant population decrease are dire. New York could face a reduction in its congressional representation, leading to diminished influence over federal policies that directly affect the state. Additionally, a smaller population could result in reduced federal funding, which is often allocated based on population size.
This loss of revenue could severely impact local businesses and job markets, leading to a further economic downturn. Furthermore, the state could see a dramatic drop in tax revenue, exacerbating existing financial challenges for both the city and state governments.
Why are residents leaving New York?
The reasons behind this exodus are multifaceted. Many attribute the decline to progressive policies that have led to increased taxes and a perceived rise in crime and disorder. Public schools, despite receiving significant funding, are failing to adequately prepare students for the future, with only about half of third to eighth graders achieving proficiency in standardized tests.
Recent announcements from Governor Hochul regarding congestion pricing—a controversial tax on Manhattan motorists—have only added fuel to the fire of discontent among residents. As crime rates continue to rise, with felonies up by a third compared to pre-pandemic levels, many New Yorkers are questioning whether the state can reverse its downward trajectory.
